Comparing Leadoff Hitters using ISPR

I have compared some of the greatest leadoff hitters of the past 50 years using my ISPR formula. The formula can be used for any player, but I've decided to specifically apply this to leadoff batters. In order to keep things as pure as possible, I'm only going to compare each hitters stats based soley upon their Plate Appearances as a leadoff batter. I considered only comparing their stats when they lead off an inning, but I thought that would be inaccurate. The player is placed in the leadoff role, not only to lead off innings more often than everyone else, but because he has been strategically placed there to get in a scoring position for the players batting behind him, who've been strategically placed there to drive runs in. Just as BARISP (batting average with runners in scoring position) and RBI are good stats to measure a 3, 4, 5 hitter, I think ISPR measures the success of a leadoff hitter very well.

I've chosen Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Reyes, Lou Brock, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Kenny Lofton, Ichiro Suzuki, Vince Coleman, Otis Nixon, Craig Biggio and Pete Rose to compare.

It is very difficult to determine if ISPR has anything to do with a player actually scoring runs. One thing ISRP proves is simply whether or not a player was good at independently getting himself into scoring position. Scoring runs, other than because of your own home run, or stealing your way around the bases, very much relies on your teammates ability to drive you in. One way of determining this relationship would be to use a stat that measures runs per plate appearance. We'll call this stat Runs Per Plate Appearance, or RPPA. The formula for this will be R/PA-SH-SF.

ISPR

I was recently looking at minor league prospect statistics, trying to keep myself sharp for my rotisserie baseball keeper league. In my search for a decent statistic that measures a player's ability to get himself into scoring position, I think I may have created a very good stat to measure leadoff batter's effectiveness. The statistic applies to all hitters of course, but I think it's most useful when judging a leadoff hitter's effectiveness to do the job he's paid to do: get into scoring position for the big guys to drive you in. I say that I "think" I may have created it, because there's already pretty much a statistic for everything in baseball.

I call the statistic "Independant Scoring Percentage Ratio," or ISPR. Basically, it means the percentage of plate appearances that a player gets himself into scoring position independant of any other batters. This includes doubles, triples, home runs (the ultimate scoring position), and steals. The formula is this:
2B+3B+HR+SB/PA-SF-SH. The reason I'm dividing by Plate Appearances and not At Bats is because I've included steals in the formula, and steals certainly come after walks, so I thought it could only be accurate to include every plate opportunity. I've exempted Sacrifice Flys and Sacrifice Bunts, because these plays are made with the understanding that the player will not reach base.

Caps Season Ends...Much To Look Forward To

The Caps may have lost game seven last night to the Flyers in overtime, but for the first time in any playoff series loss that I can remember, their fans aren't that dissapointed. There's much more to it than just being happy that your team finally made the playoffs after a 5 year drought. Us Caps fans have a bright future to look forward to, and the rest of the league is starting to notice.

Before this season, none of the Caps youngsters had ever played in a big game at the NHL level. The biggest games of the past few years have been the prime time "Alex vs. Sydney" matchups. That's it! Now, after this season, the Caps have played in about 19 straight big games. Each one labelled as "the biggest game of the season," and each one bigger than the last. The Caps are 14-3-2 in those 19 big games. That's pretty impressive!

Following a terribly heartbreaking weekend (March 8 & 9), where the Caps lost back to back nail-biters in the closing seconds, the Caps knew that they'd pretty much have to go on a tear in order to make the playoffs. From that moment forward, every game the Caps played was the biggest game of the season. Boy did they respond, and they not only made the playoffs, but they won their division!

There is no longer a huge question mark regarding whether or not this team can perform in a do-or-die situation. They've done it this very season! Had the Caps not made the playoffs this season, we'd have to wait yet another year for their young players to gain that crucial playoff experience. Instead of heading into the 2008/2009 season with a bunch of 22-24 year old players with playoff experience, we'd be heading into the season with another "young, unproven team." That has been the label of this team for the past few seasons. Now, we've got young players with playoff experience, which equals entire careers built on early, proven performance. I think any GM on any team in the league would be a fool not to trade his entire team for a team full of young players with this type of experience and poise, who's better years are still ahead of them.

The Caps' top 5 scorers during this playoff series are all 24 years old or younger. Alex Semin, Nick Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green, and Brooks Laich all combined for 15 goals and 36 points during the 7 game series. That's over 2 goals and 5 points a game from a group of players who average just over 22 years of age. In contrast, of the top 5 Flyers in scoring throughout this series, only one (Mike Richards, 23) is younger than 30. The Flyers have had a major turn around this season, but the Caps future has been built slowly and deliberately, and I've never been more excited to be a Caps fan!

Atlantic League Baseball around the corner...

This is one of my favorite times of the year. Baseball is just kicking off, and Hockey has their playoffs.

I'm becoming a big Atlantic League fan. For those of you that don't know, the Atlantic League is an in dependant professional minor league. That means that the teams in the league have no affiliation with Major League Baseball. It is pretty much the equivalent to AAA or AA+ minor league baseball.

Most teams have 2 or 3 players who are former big leaguers waiting for another chance in the bigs, and playing in the Atlantic League until a MLB team picks them up. Carl Everett (Long Island Ducks), Jason Phillips (Camden RiverSharks), and Ruben Mateo (Newark Bears) are a few that are currently signed by AL teams.

I'm growing to love the league because of its proximity, and because of the great ballparks. With the addition of the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, seven of the eight teams are within a 3 hour drive from my home in northern Baltimore County.

Great Week for My Teams...

Caps clinch the southeast division, and the O's are in first place! Holy shit!

OV for MVP? What's Your Excuse Now???

For the past couple of months, hockey "experts" everywhere have stated that they won't support Alex Ovechkin for the Hart Trophy if the Caps don't make the playoffs. They've opted instead to endorse Brodeur, Lidstrom, Malkin and Iginla.

To me, the whole "not making the playoffs" logic was just an excuse not to vote for the world's best hockey player, who just happens to NOT be Canadian. Why else would they be so sure to autimatically assume that the Capitals wouldn't make the playoffs, but that the Flames (who weren't a lock) would? I never heard anybody say "Iginla shouldn't win the Hart if the Flames don't make the postseason."

The fact that Ovechkin is always the first guy these "experts" talk about, regardless of whether or not they support him, is evidence enough that he deserves the Hart Trophy.

Now that the Caps are in the playoffs, I'm sure we'll hear some more excuses from people who had already decided that they won't vote for him.

SlingBox...

This thing is cool!

Too bad they block streaming video at my job.